The 2022-23 NBA season found the Utah Jazz in an advantageous position. Having initiated a rebuilding phase the prior summer by trading prominent players like Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert (along with Royce O`Neale) for a collection of draft assets, promising prospects, and rotational talent, their initial 10-3 run proved unsustainable. Nevertheless, it highlighted that Lauri Markkanen, the towering sharpshooter acquired in the Mitchell trade, was a star in the making. He put up impressive numbers, averaging 25.6 points with 64% true shooting, which earned him an All-Star selection and the Most Improved Player accolade. The Jazz ultimately concluded the season with a 37-45 record, dropping out of playoff contention after shedding several key players at the trade deadline and deploying unconventional lineups late in the season.
Initially, the Jazz`s future appeared promising, offering a spectrum of strategic choices: aggressively pursue a star player, meticulously build through the draft, or adopt a hybrid approach. However, just two years later, their patience might be wearing thin. Following a dismal 17-65 season, questions arise. Lauri Markkanen, now 28, saw his production decline to 19 points on 57.1% true shooting while consuming 30% of the team`s salary cap. A rookie extension for Walker Kessler remains unsigned, amidst persistent trade rumors surrounding him. None of their recent draft picks from 2023 and 2024—including Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, and Kyle Filipowski—have cemented their roles as foundational pieces. With Austin Ainge now at the helm as team president, there`s considerable uncertainty regarding whether the No. 5 overall pick, Ace Bailey, will prove to be a stroke of genius or a major misstep. As the saying goes, many seeds have been sown, but a flourishing harvest is still a distant prospect.
Current Situation
Last Season: The third year of Utah`s rebuild saw an immediate plunge into losses, with the team holding a 10-36 record by the end of January, a stark contrast to their 26-26 and 24-25 starts in the first two years, respectively. Curiously, the early-season Jazz outperformed their later iteration. From March onwards, the team managed only 2 wins out of 23 games, posting a league-worst net rating of -14.7. The Jazz incurred a $100,000 fine in March for breaching the Player Participation Policy, yet this rule didn`t prohibit them from resting key players in the latter halves of games, a tactic they employed. Their season concluded with the NBA`s worst record, ensuring their draft pick would be no lower than fifth overall.
Offseason Moves: After dropping to their lowest possible lottery position, Utah drafted Ace Bailey, a 6-foot-7 scoring talent who had notably refused to work out for them (and several other franchises). They also moved up from the 21st to the 18th pick to secure Walter Clayton Jr., a 22-year-old point guard whose value soared after leading Florida to an NCAA championship. In a puzzling move, they sacrificed a second-round pick to trade Collin Sexton for Jusuf Nurkic. However, they subsequently gained three additional second-round picks by sending John Collins to acquire Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson, while also taking on Georges Niang`s contract.
Vegas Win Projection: BetMGM has set the Jazz`s over/under for wins at 18.5.
The Debate
Jazz Optimist: While I had hoped for Cooper Flagg, the draft lottery has its own unpredictability. The moment Austin Ainge declared Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton Jr. as their “dream scenario,” I shifted my focus and immersed myself in Bailey`s highlights. Even now, it`s astonishing that Bailey was still on the board. His potential surpasses the three players selected before him, and elite wing players continue to be the most sought-after archetype in the NBA. I`m convinced that Coach Will Hardy and the development team will maximize his abilities. For me, the Jazz mirror the 2021-22 Thunder: they require patience, but not as much as widely believed.
Jazz Pessimist: Unless Cody Williams magically transforms into Jalen Williams, your optimism is misplaced. The Jazz`s drafting record pales in comparison to the Thunder`s—who are an extreme outlier in NBA team construction—and Lauri Markkanen doesn`t possess the same caliber as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Despite the losses, I enjoyed watching OKC during the early Mark Daigneault years, and similarly, Utah in the initial stages of the Hardy era. However, the same cannot be said for last season`s squad. The team was plagued by an abundance of dreadful turnovers and truly abysmal defense. It was simply a bad, bad, bad performance.
Jazz Optimist: Did you actually watch the Jazz last season? While victories weren`t the primary objective, they exhibited good coaching and significant effort, much like the Thunder during their lottery years. A notable point: Utah`s most-used lineup (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Markkanen, John Collins, and Walker Kessler) achieved a +7.4 net rating. The issue was its limited deployment, totaling only 196 minutes across 15 games. But let`s move past last season. Cody Williams, while perhaps not reaching his brother`s All-NBA heights, showed remarkable transformation and increased strength in Summer League compared to his rookie year. I anticipate a strong resurgence from Markkanen, immediate contributions from Clayton, and eagerly await the development of our returning young talent this summer. Kyle Filipowski impressed in Summer League, but Taylor Hendricks is my personal favorite among the young Jazz players; with him and Bailey on the court, the Jazz are set to become exceptionally more athletic and entertaining than ever before.
Jazz Pessimist: While I appreciate the concept of Hendricks—a versatile 3-and-D player with the length and athleticism to defend almost anyone—he was sidelined for nearly the entire last season and spent a considerable part of his rookie year in the G League. I`d advise tempering expectations for both him and Bailey, as the latter clearly represents a long-term developmental prospect. In truth, my skepticism towards the Jazz`s rebuild stems from their perceived “punishment” by the Basketball Gods for their solitary commitment to tanking. Ainge made a high-stakes gamble on Bailey, and I fear it could be a monumental misfire. Bailey exhibits some of the poorest shot selection I`ve ever witnessed, his ballhandling is questionable, his passing instincts are severely lacking, his underdeveloped upper-body strength creates multiple challenges, and his defensive effort is subpar. If Coach Hardy`s team can transform him into an impactful player, they`d be performing miracles. (And are you genuinely contending that last year`s Jazz played with consistent effort? My most memorable quote of the season was Hardy`s reaction to a 50-point defeat against Dallas: “That was an absolutely horrendous performance from start to finish. That was a masterpiece of dogshit.”)
Jazz Optimist: That was just one game! Hardy also stated, “I haven`t been disappointed in our team very often this year,” a detail you seem to have overlooked. Furthermore, Bailey is barely 19 years old! I recall similar nitpicking directed at Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards when they were draft prospects. While some of your critiques of Ace Bailey`s collegiate performance at Rutgers may be valid, his role with the Utah Jazz will differ significantly. Moreover, ballhandling, strength, and decision-making are all skills that can be developed. What can`t be taught are his incredible shot-making ability, high release point, innate confidence, and raw athleticism. Most promising young scorers exhibit defensive weaknesses at his age, and few possess his capacity to aggressively contest and block shots as a help defender the way that he can. In a sense, the Jazz are fortunate that Bailey wasn`t a more polished player in college; otherwise, securing such a talented prospect at pick No. 5 would have been impossible.
Jazz Pessimist: My primary concern is that I want our franchise`s core players to embody the principle Austin Ainge committed to as team president: consistently making “a lot of good decisions.” I haven`t observed anything suggesting Bailey fits that description. Furthermore, to be blunt, the efficacy of many decisions made by the Jazz`s front office prior to Ainge`s tenure remains uncertain. Moving forward, I have several fundamental questions regarding their future: What are the odds that Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier, or Clayton will develop into a starting-level guard? What is the strategic rationale behind Jusuf Nurkić`s presence on the roster? And how much more of this rebuilding process is Markkanen prepared to endure?
