Donovan Mitchell is familiar with this predicament. Between 2017 and 2022, his Utah Jazz consistently won roughly 60% of their regular-season games each year but failed to progress beyond the second round of the playoffs. In the 2020-21 season, they secured the NBA`s best regular-season record and an outstanding net rating, even catching a break when the Los Angeles Clippers` Kawhi Leonard suffered an ACL tear in Game 4 of their second-round series. Nevertheless, the Jazz lost the subsequent two games dishearteningly, with Clippers forward Terance Mann repeatedly sinking wide-open three-pointers in the decisive match.
The 2024-25 Cleveland Cavaliers might have surpassed all those Jazz rosters. Their record (64-18) and net rating (+9.2) were superior to the Jazz team that lost to the Clippers. Yet, for the third consecutive year, the Cavaliers` season concluded with a quiet disappointment. They not only fell to the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers in the second round but also lost the series 4-1, with their offensive performance dramatically declining. As Mitchell enters his fourth season in Cleveland, he`s never had a more straightforward path to the Finals, but the prevailing narrative for this season is painfully familiar: ultimately, nothing significant truly registers until May.
Current Situation
Last year:
Last season, Evan Mobley made significant strides, Darius Garland returned to full health, and the Cavaliers` 15-0 start wasn`t even their longest winning streak. Kenny Atkinson was named Coach of the Year, Mobley earned Defensive Player of the Year (and a spot on the All-NBA Second Team), while Mitchell placed fifth in MVP voting (and made the All-NBA First Team). They boosted their offensive firepower at the trade deadline by acquiring De`Andre Hunter, but when facing personnel shortages in the playoffs, the Pacers thoroughly exhausted them.
The offseason:
During the offseason, Ty Jerome departed for the Memphis Grizzlies, but Cleveland promptly replaced him with Lonzo Ball, acquired in a direct trade for Isaac Okoro. The team also re-signed Sam Merrill to a four-year, $38 million deal and brought back Larry Nance Jr. on a veteran minimum contract.
Projected Win Total (BetMGM):
56.5 wins
The Discussion
Cavaliers Believer:
The prevailing narrative surrounding the Cavs this season appears to be that they have much to prove. Seemingly, their loss to the Pacers wasn`t due to a string of ill-timed injuries, but rather because they`re perceived as “frauds” and “chokers.” Has everyone forgotten that Darius Garland missed the first two games of the series and was far from his usual self upon his return? Did it slip anyone`s mind that both Evan Mobley and De`Andre Hunter were injured in the opener and sat out the subsequent game? Donovan Mitchell valiantly stepped up, but especially after spraining his ankle in Game 4, he couldn`t realistically be expected to carry the team single-handedly. It strikes me as peculiar that some individuals who believe the Pacers would have been champions if not for Tyrese Haliburton`s injury now label Cleveland`s loss to them as a “damning failure.” Looking at the Eastern Conference now, I see numerous teams with something to demonstrate… and then I see the Cavs, who improved this summer and would have been clear favorites to reach the Finals even without any moves. If Mobley takes another leap forward—and there`s no reason to doubt he will—don`t be surprised if they clinch the entire championship.
Cavaliers Skeptic:
You`re upset about a “narrative” that the Cavs themselves wouldn`t contest. Of course they have something to prove! Since Mitchell`s arrival, they`ve only secured two playoff series victories, both against Florida-based teams with severe scoring deficiencies. There`s an abundance of talent on this roster, so it would be disrespectful not to expect more. I assure you, it`s possible to both respect the Pacers and be disappointed that Cleveland couldn`t even manage two wins against them. Injuries were undeniably a factor, but why did Ty Jerome completely collapse? What happened to their three-point shooting? Couldn`t Mobley have contributed more offensively? Perhaps the Cavs are the “safest” bet to emerge from the East (due to the Achilles tears of Haliburton and Jayson Tatum), but I wouldn`t pick them over the entire field, and you can`t genuinely believe the Knicks are intimidated by them.
Cavaliers Believer:
The Cavs swept the regular-season series against the Knicks last year, so I`d argue New York has legitimate reason for concern. And it`s interesting you brought up Jerome`s playoff struggles, which are now entirely moot. If only they had Lonzo Ball in his place against Indiana! Their defense would have been stronger, and they would have generated more easy baskets in transition. I also really appreciate the Larry Nance Jr. signing, by the way: he`s another versatile defender, and he shot 45.5% on wide-open threes last season. The Knicks—along with the Magic and any other team you view as their competition in the East—surely wish they possessed the caliber of two-way role players that Cleveland can deploy from its bench.
Cavaliers Skeptic:
I`m a big admirer of a healthy Lonzo Ball, I greatly respect Sam Merrill`s audacious shot selection, and I`m pleased Nance is back home. That being said, the Cavs` offseason moves feel somewhat risky. Is Ball remaining healthy until May a more probable outcome than Jerome`s regular-season production translating to the playoffs would have been? Is Merrill`s shooting prowess truly more valuable than Jerome`s playmaking abilities? Will playoff opponents genuinely regard Nance and Ball as reliable spot-up shooters? I`m uncertain about all these aspects, and I`m already a little worried about wing depth, especially since Max Strus is slated to miss at least the first month of the season due to a foot injury. Allow me to guess: you`re not concerned because Jaylon Tyson is supposedly going to be exceptional, right?
Cavaliers Believer:
I did appreciate what I saw from him in Summer League (again), but even with Strus sidelined, Tyson is, at best, their tenth man in the rotation. My lack of concern stems from the fact that Merrill, Hunter, and Dean Wade are more than capable of absorbing Strus` minutes, as their roles on this (championship-caliber) team are comparatively smaller than they might be elsewhere. This, incidentally, touches upon what frustrates me about the current discourse surrounding the Cavs: We know there are many legitimate players on this roster. We know the pieces fit together effectively. We know they will score a multitude of points, do so efficiently, and they`re going to be quite formidable defensively as well. I perceive no major, existential issues for them to resolve. I simply envision them posing a significant challenge for every other team in the Eastern Conference.
Cavaliers Skeptic:
It`s amusing how quickly things evolve. A year ago, significant doubts were raised by everyone regarding both the Mitchell-Garland backcourt and the Mobley-Allen frontcourt, particularly concerning their playoff performance. I`m uncertain if the Cavs will overcome their past challenges this time, but one thing is clear: if they don`t, those identical questions will resurface, louder than ever before.
