When discussing the NBA`s Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY), Victor Wembanyama`s name inevitably dominates the conversation. It`s clear that a vast majority of NBA analysts consider San Antonio`s towering Frenchman to be the league`s premier defender. While he is undoubtedly a strong contender for this season`s award and potentially many more in the future, a closer look from a betting perspective reveals nuances.
From a gambling viewpoint, Wembanyama`s current shortest odds stand at -175 on DraftKings. These odds suggest Vegas assigns him over a 63.6% probability of winning the DPOY. However, this implied probability appears questionable upon deeper analysis.
Setting aside Wembanyama`s defensive prowess for a moment, the crucial factor is the 65-game qualification threshold for the award. Last season, fewer than 30% of all NBA players (169 out of 569) met this requirement. Even narrowing the scope to established NBA players who started at least 10 games (271 total), only about half (140) played 65 games. Furthermore, Wembanyama carries additional health considerations, unlike most players.
This highlights that reaching 65 games is not guaranteed for any NBA player, especially one with Wembanyama`s injury history. Given his “minus money” odds, which imply a 63.6% chance of winning, he would first need a greater than 63.6% chance of simply qualifying by playing 65 games. This doesn`t even account for the possibility of another player outperforming him, even if he does qualify.
Such an outcome is plausible, despite current perceptions. Last year, Evan Mobley secured the award despite his team ranking only 8th defensively, a rarity since 2008 where all DPOY winners came from top-five defenses. The Spurs, even with Wembanyama on the court last season, hovered around 19th defensively. While his on-court impact was top-tier, voters typically assess overall team defensive performance.
While Wembanyama will be my personal DPOY prediction due to his individual talent, it would be misguided from a betting standpoint to assign him a 63.6% chance of winning before the season. A six-month season introduces too many variables, including injuries or unforeseen team performance, making his current odds poor value.
Therefore, the focus shifts to identifying value bets. With Wembanyama as the overwhelming favorite, we`ll examine two categories: `Non-Wembanyama Favorites` (candidates at +2500 odds or shorter) and `Long Shots` (all other contenders). These represent the most promising value picks for Defensive Player of the Year.
Non-Wembanyama Favorites
Wembanyama`s dominance has skewed the DPOY odds significantly. While Chet Holmgren is a clear second-tier candidate, almost every other player in the league is listed at 25-to-1 odds or longer, effectively making them long shots in comparison.
Consequently, betting on Holmgren at +700 odds currently offers poor value. It might be wiser to wait a month or two to see if Wembanyama`s odds shorten further, potentially lengthening Holmgren`s. Holmgren also faces the 65-game qualification risk, and attributing defensive impact to a single Thunder player is challenging given their nearly identical defensive ratings with him on (105.6) and off (105.9) the court last season. Even if he were the second-best defender, his candidacy is easily undermined compared to the field.
This leaves three players priced at +2500. While none are particularly compelling, I`ll assess them in order of their perceived likelihood to win:
- Dyson Daniels: His opportunity likely passed last season. His impressive steal and deflection stats may normalize this year, and playing with Trae Young, whose teams have never ranked higher than 18th defensively, is a disadvantage. Perimeter players, unless extreme long shots, are generally not good DPOY bets. Daniels is best avoided.
- Amen Thompson: I previously favored Thompson for this award. He possesses DPOY-caliber defensive skills, and I would have endorsed him weeks ago. However, with Fred VanVleet injured, his offensive responsibilities are expected to increase significantly, potentially leading the Rockets to manage his defensive workload. Despite being an excellent defender, his expanded role makes him a less appealing bet.
- Evan Mobley: Mobley, a recent DPOY winner, is available at 25-to-1 odds—a rare occurrence for a reigning award recipient. He has only missed the 65-game threshold once, plays in a weaker Eastern Conference where Cleveland could excel, and DPOY often favors repeat winners. Over the last 30 years, four players (Dikembe Mutombo, Ben Wallace, Dwight Howard, Rudy Gobert) have won it at least three times. Given that reputation influences DPOY voting, Mobley presents a strong value pick if Wembanyama falters or doesn`t qualify.
Among these three, Mobley offers the best value. However, for those looking beyond Wembanyama, this season presents an excellent opportunity for bolder long-shot wagers, as many enticing options exist.
Intriguing Long Shots
When evaluating long shots, prioritize team performance over subtle individual defensive differences. The DPOY award often hinges on year-to-year statistical trends and compelling narratives. Identify teams that could realistically achieve a top-five defensive ranking by season`s end, as these are the environments that typically foster DPOY candidates. We`ll examine each candidate by asking this core question.
- Bam Adebayo (+10000): Can Miami achieve a top-five defense? Yes. They were 9th post-All-Star break last season, now have Davion Mitchell for a full season, and critically, Tyler Herro`s initial absence removes a defensive weak link. This creates an early narrative opportunity for Adebayo, who has felt perennially overlooked for defensive accolades. His +10000 odds on FanDuel represent an appealing long-shot bet.
- Draymond Green (+5000): Can Golden State achieve a top-five defense? Absolutely. They boasted the NBA`s best defense after the All-Star break and added Al Horford, improving their defense and enabling more minutes for defensive guards like Gary Payton II and De`Anthony Melton due to Horford`s shooting. Green, who aggressively advocated for himself last season, is another clear long shot with good value.
- Jalen Suggs (+5000): Can Orlando achieve a top-five defense? Without a doubt. They`ve been a top-three defense for two consecutive seasons. With Desmond Bane handling more offensive duties, Suggs is freed to intensify his defensive pressure on opposing stars. He is one of only two perimeter players I rate highly at +5000.
- Ausar Thompson (+6000): Can Detroit achieve a top-five defense? Yes. They ranked 5th defensively from January 1st onwards. Ausar Thompson will have a much lighter offensive burden than his brother Amen in Houston. While Amen is the more polished offensive twin, Ausar shares identical physical gifts and applies them equally effectively on defense. At +6000, he is the final highly attractive long-shot candidate.
Ultimately, only one or two of these long shots might genuinely contend, but their appealing odds allow for betting on all four, letting the season unfold. Many other notable players fall within this range, and I`ll explain why I`m less optimistic about their DPOY chances.
- Anthony Davis (+3500): Even ignoring recent training camp buzz, Davis appears overpriced at the fifth-shortest odds. Evidence doesn`t strongly support him being a significantly better defender at power forward than center, and Dallas`s point-of-attack defense is thin unless rookie Cooper Flagg immediately becomes an elite guard defender. Combined with his recurring health issues, Davis is a hard pass.
- Rudy Gobert (+5000): While Minnesota is capable of a top-five defense, Gobert`s DPOY candidacy is unappealing. His defensive metrics universally declined last season. Furthermore, the substantial contract given to Naz Reid suggests an increased role for him, potentially reducing Gobert`s minutes. Jaden McDaniels, while good, is a tier below the perimeter players who could genuinely win.
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Jackson carries too many red flags. He`s consistently an injury risk, and Memphis`s frontcourt is already depleted, affecting team defense. Ja Morant`s defensive vulnerabilities often require Jackson to compensate. With unknown schematic changes under Tuomas Iisalo, it`s best to monitor Memphis early in the season before considering Jackson.
- Ivica Zubac (+6000): The Clippers are aging. Zubac had a quietly effective defensive stretch last season, but too many favorable circumstances contributed to it, which may not repeat. The team is also allocating more minutes to offense-focused players like Bradley Beal and John Collins this year.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (+10000) & Myles Turner (+15000): The Bucks lack strong point-of-attack defenders. Even if Giannis and Turner hadn`t shown some decline in recent years, this deficiency would be too significant to overcome for DPOY contention.
- Toumani Camara (+9000) & Donovan Clingan (+10000): Portland`s uncertain lineup decisions make betting on Camara difficult. While a starting five of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Avdija, and Camara makes sense for their future, the team might feel obligated to start Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant. Clingan is a more interesting Blazers candidate, but I don`t expect him to play sufficient minutes due to other centers on the roster.
- Herb Jones (+20000): While I admire Jones`s defensive game, a DPOY win on the Pelicans seems impossible. The team consistently struggles with misfortune and defensive consistency, making a top-five defense or a DPOY contender an unlikely outcome.
Ultimately, if you choose to bet on Wembanyama, consider adding some of the discussed hedge bets. A significant minus-money wager disappearing due to an early-season injury is a risk worth mitigating. There are numerous appealing long-shot options to provide that coverage.
