Study is forecast to underreporting of cases

The number of people Infected with the Coronavirus continues to rise: According to the U.S. “Johns Hopkins University” have in the world so far and 244,000 people with Sars-CoV-2 infected around 10,000 died. It is, however, only the number of people, which is proven with the virus. The actual number of people Infected is probably higher, experts say. It is made up of the officially Ill plus a certain number of undetected cases – the so – called dark number.

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That there must be at Covid-19 a large number of undetected cases, it was already foreseeable in the early Phase of the epidemic. At the end of January, the grass, the Virus is categorized initially in the Chinese Region of Hubei, but there was in the surrounding countries such as Thailand confirmed individual cases. Even then, scientists said: This kind of distribution was not explained by the official number of around 300 cases. There must be a considerable number of unrecognized Infected, so it could also come to cases abroad. For this type of theses, researchers have relied on so-called model bills. They are a common tool to the outbreak of the review to happen and to be able to analyze.

Up to 153,000 Infected in Germany

It was unclear yet how big the dark figure at Covid-19 fails. A first order of magnitude, a study of American researchers led by Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University, published in the journal “Science” provides: a confirmed case of five to ten undiscovered infections therefore. If we extrapolate this estimate to the current case numbers high, were infected between 1.2 and 2.4 million people in the world. In Germany, the actual number of cases would settle at the moment between the 77,000 and 153,000 new infections.

Sars-CoV-2 triggers a wide range of symptoms: cough, fever, throat pain, but also diarrhea. The Severity of the curves varies greatly. Around four out of five infections are mild, to no symptoms. In five cases, medical help is necessary. Just because the Virus can be very mild symptoms, transferred, targeted containment measures, such as curfews also to the entire population – not only to the individual, especially the severely Ill. People with mild symptoms but tend the complaints to the doctor to clarify their disease remains undetected.

Unsuspecting Infected

At the beginning of the epidemic in China only about 14 percent of the Coronavirus have been detected, according to the researchers, cases and correctly diagnosed. 86 percent of all infections remained, therefore, unrecognized. “These results explain the rapid geographic spread of Sars-CoV-2, and indicate that the containment of this Virus will be particularly difficult,” the researchers write. As long as there was no official travel restrictions, the Virus unchecked spread transfer of people, who didn’t know what danger they pose.

Against this Background, measures such as social distance, the more important, as they demanded that Chancellor Angela Merkel in yesterday’s TV speech. “It depends on each. We are not condemned, the spread of the Virus and passive. We have a cure for it: We need to keep respect from each other a distance”, – said Merkel. The Council of the virologist was clear: “No hand shock more thoroughly, and wash your hands often, for at least one and a half meters distance to the Next and still have contacts to the very Old, because you especially are at risk.”

Source: “Science”

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