Ranking the Most Valuable Traded First-Round NBA Draft Picks of 2024

After observing a consistent upward trend in traded first-round NBA picks over the past years—from 47 in 2022, to 56 in 2023, and peaking at 68 last year—I had anticipated continued linear growth, potentially reaching around 80 picks for this year’s ranking. However, as our headline suggests, that expectation was not met; we`ve landed at 63.

For the first time in this series` history, the sheer number of traded first-round picks has actually decreased. This dip is partly due to an unusually high volume of 2025 picks being moved well in advance. Typically, the upcoming draft year features the most traded first-round selections. Last year, for instance, there were 19 traded 2025 picks to rank, nearly a full year before that draft. This time, we only have 13 picks from the 2026 draft to consider.

However, this doesn`t necessarily indicate a reduction in overall pick trading. Instead, this year has highlighted a distinct trend: the same picks are being traded multiple times. For example, the De`Aaron Fox trade involved four first-round picks, but only one originally belonged to San Antonio; the other three had been acquired in prior trades. Similarly, the Phoenix Suns` trade of their 2031 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz at the deadline for three lesser picks illustrates this. All three of those acquired picks had already changed hands by the end of the 2025 NBA Draft. There are so many pick-involved trades nowadays that the total count of *unique* picks changing hands is lower because teams have a vast inventory of previously acquired external picks available to move, rather than their own original selections.

A notable consequence of this new trend is the emergence of incredibly intricate conveyance conditions. It`s worth exploring RealGM`s descriptions for some of these picks, which now often span entire paragraphs. We`re beginning to see trades where a team sends out, for instance, the third-most favorable of five selections it possesses, protected 1-13, but only if the draft lottery occurs on an odd-numbered Monday in May during a full moon. Even as the author of this analysis, I admit to still finding a few picks listed below quite challenging to interpret.

This provides a perfect opportunity to clarify the rules governing this exercise. Below, we rank every first-round pick not currently owned by its original team, based on its desirability as a team-building asset. Generally, these draft assets are assessed independently. Contextual factors like a pick`s destination depending on its favorability among several picks are mostly overlooked. There will be a few necessary exceptions, explained as we proceed, but the primary goal is to make these rankings as straightforward and comprehensible as possible, given the league`s increasing complexity. For this reason, secondary swap rights are largely disregarded as well. This means if a team trades the right to swap first-round picks in a given year to one team, and then trades that same right in the same season to another, we will typically not rank each swap separately, with only a few very notable exceptions. Ultimately, attempting to predict whether a team will have the third- or fourth-best record out of six teams five years from now simply isn`t constructive.

So, with the rules established, what criteria underpin these rankings? We evaluate these picks based on the following:

• Protections. This is the most obvious differentiator between a potentially valuable pick and a lesser one. An unprotected pick will almost always hold more value.
• Point of Origin. Is the pick coming from a strong team or a struggling one? More critically, where do we anticipate the team to be when the pick is most likely to convey? Is their roster young or veteran-heavy? Healthy or injury-prone? Do you trust that team`s front office and ownership? A pick`s upside is the single most crucial factor in its value. Virtually any team would prefer a slight chance at a very high pick over a guaranteed selection in the 20s. When swap rights are involved, the value gap between picks widens significantly at higher positions. The difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 pick is immense; between No. 20 and No. 21, it is negligible.
• Year of Conveyance. This metric is more nuanced. All else being equal, most teams would prefer an excellent pick now rather than one five years from now—partially a job security concern, as general managers want to utilize picks they acquire. However, immediate picks are more predictable. Future picks are more uncertain. Thus, if a pick originates from a good team, it might be more advantageous to receive it later, when that team could be older, facing financial constraints, or have disbanded due to unforeseen circumstances. Remember, draft picks are valuable trade assets as much as drafting tools, and perception is key for trade assets. A pick seven years out offers seven years for the rest of the league to lose faith in the pick`s original owner. The further out the pick, the greater the opportunity to capitalize on perception shifts. The timeline for each pick is assessed based on its originating team.
• Is the pick owed outright or through a swap? Naturally, teams prefer to retain their own first-rounder. However, if the incoming pick is strong enough, a swap can be highly worthwhile. In swap scenarios, the value of the incoming pick is weighted more heavily, but the value of the outgoing pick is also considered.

One final note before we begin: for the first time in this list`s history, we will not provide a blurb for each individual pick. In many cases, picks will be discussed collectively. As we ascend the rankings, more space will be dedicated to specific picks. I don`t want you to spend the entire afternoon on this behemoth (a consideration as much for my editors as for you, the readers). With all that settled, let`s begin.

63. 2026 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves or Atlanta Hawks
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

62. 2026 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

We start with two swaps that are unlikely to materialize. Utah is projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA, making a swap with a contender like Minnesota highly improbable. This in turn means Cleveland has little to be concerned about regarding their pick. Atlanta can swap with Cleveland, but given the Cavaliers` projected strength (a 64-win team here), that`s also unlikely to occur.

61. 2026 Utah Jazz

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-8
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

60. 2026 Washington Wizards

• Currently belongs to: New York Knicks
• Protections: 1-8
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Our first two owed picks are among the most misleading. It`s improbable that the Jazz will hand the Thunder the No. 9 pick, especially after offloading most of their significant veterans. Washington`s pick offers slightly more value simply because the Wizards are in the Eastern Conference, providing a slim margin of upside, but they are also not aiming to give the Knicks a top-10 selection. Washington`s pick at least converts into a second-rounder, whereas Utah`s obligation extinguishes after the season.

59. 2030 Golden State Warriors

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: 1-20
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

58. 2027 San Antonio Spurs

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-16
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Pick goes to Sacramento if it falls between 1 and 16, or Oklahoma City if it falls between 17 and 30.

57. 2029 Utah Jazz

• Currently belongs to: Charlotte Hornets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? The Hornets will receive the least favorable of Utah, Cleveland and Minnesota`s 2029 first-round picks.

56. 2029 Houston Rockets

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? The Nets will receive the least favorable of Houston, Dallas and Phoenix`s 2029 first-round picks.

Here we have four picks with limited upside. If Golden State performs poorly in 2030, the Wizards receive nothing. If the Warriors are strong, they get a low pick. The 2027 Spurs are almost guaranteed to be good, so Oklahoma City is likely to get something, but it will be a relatively weak pick. Charlotte, in 2029, is set to receive the least favorable of three distinct picks in the same year. It`s highly probable that one of the Jazz, Cavaliers, or Timberwolves will be a good team. The same applies to the Nets in 2029, though the involved picks have slightly more potential.

55. 2026 Oklahoma City Thunder

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards or Houston Rockets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Oklahoma City will receive the two most favorable of its own pick, Houston`s and the Clippers`, while Washington receives the least favorable

54. 2026 Houston Rockets

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder or Washington Wizards
• Protections: 1-4
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

These are generally low picks. Assuming both Houston and Oklahoma City will be strong teams this season, Washington will likely end up with a low pick from one of them. The Houston pick, regardless of whether it goes to the Thunder or the Wizards, is almost certain to be at the end of the first round, and it features top-four protection even in a worst-case scenario. The Clippers pick involved in the mix will rank considerably higher due to its age-related upside.

53. 2029 Orlando Magic

• Currently belongs to: Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: 1-2
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

52. 2028 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz or Atlanta Hawks
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

51. 2028 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

We are finally introducing a bit of upside here. A few years can bring significant change. However, we can reasonably expect these teams to remain strong a few years from now. For instance, there isn`t a single player on the current Orlando Magic roster in their 30s, and the top-two protection further limits upside. The Cavaliers` and Knicks` picks materialize somewhat sooner. To be fair, this timeframe is roughly when the second apron rule will start forcing Cleveland to shed salary. Yet, they still have Evan Mobley, which provides a safeguard against extreme downside. The Knicks will likely be nearing the end of their ultra-expensive cycle as the Karl-Anthony Towns contract concludes, but their core should largely remain intact, albeit several years older. The Nets` situation by then is unknown.

50. 2027 Denver Nuggets

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-5
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

49. 2027 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

48. 2027 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

47. 2027 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Here is our first group of lightly protected or unprotected picks from strong teams in the near future. All, except for that Denver pick, offer theoretical upside. Good teams sometimes experience injury-riddled seasons or unexpected transactions. However, in all likelihood, the Nuggets, Cavs, Knicks, and Timberwolves will be drafting late in the first round in 2027. Denver`s pick is protected, making it the least valuable of this batch. Minnesota, being in the Western Conference, holds the most valuable pick here. Cleveland is slightly better than New York on the court, which makes its picks marginally less valuable in the draft context.

46. 2027 Los Angeles Lakers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: 1-4
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

45. 2028 Orlando Magic

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

We`re in a similar category to the picks above, but these are marginally more intriguing. The cluster of teams discussed earlier are relatively stable regarding their rosters. The Lakers are not. While we anticipate them adding another star in the somewhat near future, without knowing if that will happen or what will become of their supporting cast, there`s a heightened degree of uncertainty that boosts the value of their pick. Orlando`s pick is just one year later, and when evaluating good teams, it`s generally preferable to allow more time for situations to evolve. Still, neither pick here is exceptionally promising. The Lakers pick, which ranked No. 22 last year, has been significantly impacted by the Luka Dončić trade.

44. 2026 Atlanta Hawks

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

43. 2028 Boston Celtics

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: 1
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

42. 2030 Dallas Mavericks

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

41. 2030 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: 1
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

We`ve arrived at the section of the list dedicated to unprotected or lightly protected swap rights owed to the San Antonio Spurs by teams other than the Sacramento Kings. Considering the inherent randomness of the sport, there`s a fair chance one of these picks will surprisingly jump into the lottery for them. However, on the surface, none of them truly stand out. The 2026 Atlanta swap isn`t as exciting as it seemed a year ago, but it still involves a team expected to be in the middle of the first round. There`s room for the Hawks to underperform, though their strong offseason suggests it`s unlikely. A 2026 swap with Boston would be very interesting, but by 2028, one would assume Jayson Tatum is back in peak star form. The 2030 swaps with Dallas and Minnesota are the best of this group, but their value is limited because San Antonio can only utilize one or the other. We`ll delve deeper into these far-future Minnesota picks later; they do carry potential upside, but it hinges on too many variables for a protected swap to generate significant excitement five years out. In a few years, however, that swap could become much more enticing.

40. 2028 Dallas Mavericks

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

This pick feels like the sweet spot for a Dallas selection. By 2030, Cooper Flagg is likely to be so dominant that owning a swap with the Mavericks won`t be particularly desirable. But in 2028? Anthony Davis will be 34, Kyrie Irving will be 35, and they`ll be on the books for a combined $105 million. There`s significant downside potential there, even if Flagg begins to emerge as a star by then. And once again, we`re discussing a Thunder swap. Even if Dallas becomes, say, a play-in team, a swap is more valuable when you assume the lower end of it is coming from the end of the first round.

39. 2029 Denver Nuggets

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-5
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

38. 2028 Philadelphia 76ers

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: 1-8
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

37. 2027 San Antonio Spurs

• Currently belongs to: Sacramento Kings
• Protections: 17-30
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Pick goes to Sacramento if it falls between 1 and 16, or Oklahoma City if it falls between 17 and 30.

The 2029 Denver pick is superior to its 2027 counterpart simply due to its timing. Technically, Nikola Jokić isn`t under contract for 2029 yet. While this is likely to change, for now, we must acknowledge the possibility of him not being on the team. That Philadelphia pick significantly lost appeal this season. Firstly, the 76ers acquired VJ Edgecombe, providing a promising young prospect to mitigate the downside associated with the aging Paul George and Joel Embiid. However, it also lost value by delaying Philadelphia`s 2025 obligation to Oklahoma City by a year. This matters because it removed the cushion from the back end of Brooklyn`s pick. Had the 76ers sent Oklahoma City their 2025 pick, the Nets would have received a protected 2027 pick that would have deferred to 2028 if it didn`t convey. Instead, if the 2028 76ers pick doesn`t convey now, it simply becomes a second-rounder. The Spurs pick faces the opposite problem: it only conveys if they perform poorly in 2027, which is unlikely. However, the mere fact that it would be a valuable pick if it *does* convey gives it some value. One can never predict the health of abnormally tall centers.

36. 2026 Portland Trail Blazers

• Currently belongs to: Chicago Bulls
• Protections: 1-14
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

You might be surprised to see a pick that literally cannot be in the lottery ranked this high. This pick is lottery protected through 2028, and if it doesn`t convey, it becomes a second-round pick. However, there`s critical context: in 2028, the Blazers hold the right to swap first-round picks with the Bucks. As you`ll see later, those swap rights are incredibly valuable, particularly given my expectation that Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be a Buck in 2028. Here`s the catch: if Portland fails to make the playoffs in 2026 and 2027, but then makes them in 2028, they would have to send their 2028 first-round pick to Chicago, thereby losing the ability to swap with Milwaukee. The Blazers are in the highly competitive Western Conference. While they`ve improved, how confident are you they`ll make the playoffs in the next two years? That`s where the value lies. Portland is highly unlikely to risk losing those Milwaukee swap rights. Consequently, the Bulls can hold this pick hostage and sell it back to Portland at a premium. The longer the Blazers delay buying it back, the more valuable it becomes to Chicago. Portland should aim to reacquire this pick now, while the price is likely still reasonable. If they wait until 2028, Chicago will command a much steeper price. So, in a vacuum, this Portland pick won`t be great. But as a broader strategic asset, it has the potential to be quite significant.

35. 2029 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: 1-5
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

There`s legitimate reason to be skeptical about the 2028-29 Minnesota Timberwolves. That season marks the final year of Anthony Edwards` current contract, meaning he might force a trade in the summer of 2028 if he decides to leave Minnesota. Additionally, several older players on the current roster, most notably Rudy Gobert, will likely be past their primes by then. However, the top-five protection eliminates the best-case outcomes, and the current likelihood of Edwards remaining in Minnesota increases the odds of this pick conveying relatively late. Were this pick unprotected, it would rank approximately 10 spots higher. As is, it remains a mediocre pick.

34. 2030 Orlando Magic

• Currently belongs to: Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

33. 2029 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

32. 2029 Los Angeles Lakers

• Currently belongs to: Dallas Mavericks
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Here we have our first group of unprotected picks that are relatively far into the future. As you`ll see later on this list, this is a desirable category of pick. However, the specific teams involved meaningfully reduce that value. Again, the Magic are so young that a 2030 pick from them isn`t expected to be very good; Paolo Banchero will be 28 when it conveys. The same applies to Cleveland, where Evan Mobley will be 28 in 2029. The Lakers pick likely has the most upside of the three because much of their future is tied to Dončić, and his recent contract extension only secures him through the 2027-28 season. However, we are still talking about the Lakers, and the safe bet is that Dončić will remain with the team in 2029, so it can only realistically climb to the middle of the list.

31. 2029 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Philadelphia 76ers
• Protections: 1-3
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

30. 2027 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder or Denver Nuggets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

Clippers picks are among the most difficult to rank on this entire list. On one hand, this is a shrewd front office capable of recruiting talent given the Los Angeles market. On the other hand, they possess the oldest roster in NBA history, and they are, well, the Clippers. Their picks won`t reach the absolute top of the list, but the upside is considerable. This team could collapse at any moment in a loaded Western Conference, and without control of their own picks until 2030, they`ll struggle to trade their way back into relevance if that occurs. The hope appears to be rebuilding through free agency, but in the post-COVID NBA, few teams have successfully done so. They could trade those deep future picks, but given all the picks they`ve already relinquished, surely they eventually want to regain control of their own selections, right?

29. 2029 Boston Celtics

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers or Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

28. 2029 Dallas Mavericks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets or Houston Rockets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

We`ll discuss that 2029 Boston pick in the context of a few others shortly. For now, it possesses reasonable upside because we cannot predict Jayson Tatum`s performance so far removed from his torn Achilles. Jaylen Brown will be 32 at this point, and Derrick White will be 35. This could mark a transitional period for Boston, but it`s still Boston. The Celtics are an exceptionally well-managed team, unlikely to experience a severe downturn. Dallas is in the opposite situation. The Mavericks are run by Nico Harrison, who, frankly, is not particularly effective. Cooper Flagg in Year 4 likely guards against worst-case scenarios, but as discussed, this period will either signify the approximate end for Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, or the beginning of whatever the next phase for the Dallas roster entails. The Mavericks likely won`t be picking at the absolute bottom of the league (imagine if they hadn`t won Flagg), but there is certainly some degree of upside concerning that pick.

27. 2029 Portland Trail Blazers

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Washington receives the second-most favorable first-round pick between the Blazers, Bucks and Celtics. The Blazers receive the most and least favorable.

I am conflicted about this pick; I could justify placing it five spots higher or ten spots lower. Typically, I`m very wary of picks that are not the most favorable among a group, as relying on multiple teams to perform poorly is usually risky. However, one of the picks involved in this discussion is literally the No. 2 pick on this entire list. My eagerness to bet against the Bucks is that strong. So, let`s assume Milwaukee struggles in 2029. Suddenly, this becomes simply the most favorable of Portland`s and Boston`s picks. As just covered, that Boston pick has some upside. As for Portland, its future is quite uncertain, which cuts both ways. By that logic, you might have to rank this pick higher. The reason I cannot is the reality that even the No. 2 pick on this list carries uncertainty; it`s four years away. Case in point, the 2022 list came out three years ago, and the second-highest 2025 pick on that list belonged to the Clippers, ranking No. 24. Therefore, we`re splitting the difference here. This is as high as I can reasonably rank a second-most favorable pick. The inclusion of Milwaukee`s selection significantly boosts the upside. There`s just enough inherent downside baked into the pick`s structure that I can`t push it any higher.

26. 2027 Miami Heat

• Currently belongs to: Charlotte Hornets
• Protections: 1-14
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

25. 2027 Atlanta Hawks

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

The Heat pick is somewhat deceiving. While it`s lottery-protected, that protection only lasts for one year. If it doesn`t convey in 2027, it becomes unprotected in 2028. That`s valuable coming from a Heat team that, frankly, looks quite directionless right now. The Heat appear to be a play-in team presently, and by 2027, the Pacers and Celtics will presumably be strong contenders, and some of the Eastern Conference`s younger teams could become competitive. Unless the Heat pull another star out of a hat, I`m quite eager to bet against them. I`m generally much more bullish on the Hawks, but 2027 represents a uniquely vulnerable season for them. Trae Young and Kristaps Porziņģis are not yet under contract, and as we`ll discuss later, the Hawks could have a very valuable rookie join the team for the 2026-27 season. That will help them long-term but might hurt them short-term. Young re-signing would push this pick back several slots. Until he does, however, there`s enough upside to rank Atlanta here.

24. 2027 Dallas Mavericks

• Currently belongs to: Charlotte Hornets
• Protections: 1-2
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Even with that top-two protection, this stands as the best Dallas pick in the group. Flagg likely won`t be anywhere near his prime yet, but all the unsettling Davis- and Irving-induced worst-case scenarios remain in play. We can reasonably assume the Western Conference will be as formidable in 2027 as it is in 2026. My early projection is that Dallas will be a play-in team in both 2026 and 2027, potentially granting access to a late lottery pick with a puncher`s chance of moving up (which, ironically, is how Dallas acquired Flagg).

23. 2029 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

This period is approximately when we should anticipate the Knicks taking a step back. Based on their current cap structure, they are expected to spend the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons above the second apron. However, if they do so, they`ll need to duck back under it for the 2028-29 campaign to ensure their 2034 first-round pick doesn`t automatically fall to No. 30. While the Knicks may not be poor by 2029, their peak contending years will be behind them, and multiple core players may have departed. Without draft picks to replace them, New York should experience a decline around 2029.

22. 2026 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

Okay, this situation is somewhat complex. In this slot, we are solely ranking Washington`s ability to swap places with Phoenix in 2026. Separately, we will rank where Phoenix`s pick is likely to actually end up. So, if Washington isn`t where Phoenix`s pick is likely to end up, why is it ranked so high? Because of the lottery system. Let`s imagine a scenario where Washington and Phoenix finish in the same slots they did last year. Washington would hold the No. 2 slot, but it would also effectively have the No. 10 slot, because if Phoenix moves up, the Wizards would simply swap picks with them. Therefore, Washington will probably be worse than Phoenix this season, making an actual swap unlikely. However, gaining an extra set of ping pong balls in the flattened lottery odds era is enormously valuable.

21. 2028 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap, but Portland has the right to swap first

20. 2026 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

19. 2026 Philadelphia 76ers

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-4
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Finally, some straightforward picks, both heading to the Thunder. You could certainly argue for flipping their positions. The Clippers pick is unprotected and offers definite upside in controlling a selection from the oldest team in NBA history, playing in a strong Western Conference. However, it`s probably more likely that the Clippers will be a better team than the 76ers in 2026. Oklahoma City just experienced a Philadelphia pick scenario last year, ultimately not receiving it because it fell within the protected range and became VJ Edgecombe. Still, this pick`s protection is only 1-4, and it would require another significant misfortune for the 76ers to retain this pick. Even if such a calamity occurs, the lottery gods might not be as favorable to them as they were a year ago. Either way, the Thunder control first-round picks from teams employing Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard in 2026. That`s a rather enviable position.

18. 2027 New Orleans Pelicans

• Currently belongs to: Atlanta Hawks
• Protections: 1-4
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Atlanta gets the lesser of New Orleans` and Milwaukee`s 2027 first-round picks, unless both fall between 1-4.

As previously discussed, it`s rare to rank a `least favorable` pick this high. However, this is the least favorable of two teams in the very near future that have rather bleak outlooks. The Pelicans were recently the fourth-worst team in the NBA. As I`ve written, I don`t expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to be with the Bucks during the 2026-27 season. Both New Orleans and Atlanta should be content with the picks they ultimately receive here. If this selection were unprotected, like a similar pick we`ll address later, it would be ranked even higher.

17. 2031 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Sacramento Kings
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

16. 2031 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

And so we`ve reached a category that is almost inherently valuable: unprotected picks from win-now teams, conveyed as far out as possible. I cannot predict whether the Knicks or Timberwolves will be struggling in 2031. Perhaps Edwards will play his entire career in Minnesota, and the Timberwolves will be perpetual contenders. Perhaps the Knicks will have attracted a new superstar to the Big Apple by 2031. I simply don`t know. My best guess is that both will indeed be struggling by 2031, but it`s not a certainty. What I can state with relative comfort is that, at some point between now and 2031, the league will *perceive* the Knicks and Timberwolves as trending downwards, which will render these picks highly valuable trade assets.

15. 2028 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

For the third and final time, we discuss the 2028 Milwaukee Bucks pick. Yes, we`ve covered the complex scenarios this pick could be involved in, but this is the straightforward one. If Portland makes the playoffs in 2026 or 2027, they can swap 2028 picks with the Bucks. That is likely the perfect year to swap with Milwaukee if you believe Antetokounmpo will indeed depart before becoming a free agent in 2027. It`s close enough to his potential departure that the Bucks likely won`t have had sufficient time to rebuild. If not for the chance that the Blazers lose this pick, it would rank in the top five. Last year, it was ranked No. 9.

14. 2031 Sacramento Kings

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

13. 2030 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

12. 2030 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards or Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

I confess, one of my main questions before researching this year`s rankings was whether the Kings would finally possess a pick more valuable than any they owed. They came close, as the Minnesota pick they received in the De`Aaron Fox trade ranked No. 16. Ultimately, however, even through a swap, their own 2031 pick proved more valuable. They`ve missed the playoffs in 18 of the past 19 seasons. As long as Vivek Ranadive runs that team and they don`t fundamentally alter their operations, an unprotected Kings pick is almost certain to land in the lottery. Assuming Victor Wembanyama is at his peak by then, this represents a relatively safe swap from the end of the first round into the lottery. The Bucks pick is still more valuable because, unlike Milwaukee, Sacramento at least controls its future picks, making it easier for the Kings to add talent than for the post-Giannis Bucks. Still, 2030 is far enough out that Milwaukee will likely have somewhat rebounded from potentially losing Antetokounmpo, making this pick less desirable than its 2028 counterpart. But this swap is definitely on the table, whereas the 2028 pick depends on other factors we`ve discussed. The best swap in this group, though, is Phoenix in 2030. Like the Bucks, the Suns don`t control their own picks moving forward. But they lack a player as valuable as Antetokounmpo to trade in an effort to recoup assets. Frankly, Devin Booker likely lost trade value with his two-year, $145 million extension, so the Suns, especially in the Western Conference, are a safer bet to be struggling five years from now.

11. 2028 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Philadelphia 76ers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

This represents the pinnacle of Clippers draft assets: unprotected, owed outright, and conveying at what could be the perfect time—likely beyond the prime of the current core, but soon enough that even a rebuilt roster might still have deficiencies if they fail to attract a new star or two. This was the pick Philadelphia acquired in the James Harden trade. While the Clippers have gained value from that trade, Philadelphia should certainly benefit as well. Even if the Clippers manage to solidify their future before 2028, this pick still holds immense trade value right now.

10. 2032 Denver Nuggets

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

This is the sole 2032 pick on the list. Denver picks have generally ranked very low due to Nikola Jokić. It`s not just that he`s exceptional, but also that he rarely gets injured and his playing style, not being reliant on athletic traits, should age well. However, by 2032, he will be 37. He might be retired by then. Even if he isn`t, very few players have maintained star status at that age. The only big men ever to make an All-NBA Team after their 37th birthday were Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan, and Karl Malone. It`s possible, but unlikely. And even if Jokić is still a Nugget and a star in 2032, there`s ample time between now and then for Brooklyn to leverage the chance that he isn`t into a favorable trade. Picks seven years out are almost automatically valuable for that reason, and this is no exception.

9. 2028 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards or Philadelphia 76ers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

Brooklyn traded the majority of its Phoenix draft inventory to Houston to regain control of its own picks. This particular selection, however, they managed to retain, and it stands as a valuable swap for multiple reasons. Obviously, as we`ll soon see, Phoenix has some of the most valuable owed picks in the entire league. The added bonus here is that the Nets don`t necessarily need to swap it with their *own* pick. They also hold that 2028 76ers pick, provided it actually conveys, and they can choose to swap that one instead of their own if needed. Phoenix will therefore essentially end up with whichever of those two picks is worse, and then Washington can swap on top of that if they wish. We won`t bother ranking those secondary swap rights separately due to the complexity of the situation, but anytime you can swap one of multiple picks for a Suns pick, it`s going to be among the most valuable swaps available.

8. 2026 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Memphis will receive the less favorable of Washington`s or Phoenix`s pick, or Orlando`s pick if it is more favorable.

Yes, I know, we`ve already discussed the 2026 Suns. Bear with me. The first time we addressed them, we were focusing solely on Washington`s swap rights. Now, we`re discussing something a bit more substantial. Once Washington`s swap rights are resolved, we move down the list to Orlando. Phoenix traded secondary swap rights on its 2026 pick to the Magic two summers ago, and Orlando, in turn, packaged those rights to Memphis in the Desmond Bane trade. This means the Grizzlies will receive whichever pick is worse between Phoenix and Washington this year, but with an added bonus: if Orlando`s pick is better than that one, the Grizzlies receive Orlando`s pick instead. That last part is unlikely, so Memphis should expect to receive either Washington`s or Phoenix`s first-round pick. Assuming both teams will struggle this year, that choice will be valuable regardless of what happens with Washington`s swap rights.

7. 2027 Brooklyn Nets

• Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

This represents the best swap available. The Nets, currently, are in disarray. Could that change in the 2026 offseason? Potentially, but you`re betting on one of two outcomes: either the players Brooklyn drafts in 2025 and 2026 will be immediate game-changers, or the Nets will acquire a star in the summer of 2026. I don`t view either as particularly probable. Even the best rookies require time to develop. What is Brooklyn`s path as a 2026 star-chaser? The Spurs and Rockets possess more trade assets. The Lakers have an inside track among big-market teams a star might force his way onto. Besides, the Nets control their own 2028 pick, so they might choose a slow rebuild regardless. Brooklyn`s only saving grace for 2027 is the weakness of the Eastern Conference. In all likelihood, though, this is a top-10 pick being swapped for a bottom-10 first-round pick. The Rockets are strong. The Nets are struggling. This swap is for the very near future.

6. 2027 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: New Orleans Pelicans
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Yet another pick we`ve touched upon. Earlier, we discussed how the Hawks stand to benefit from both the Pelicans and Bucks performing poorly. The difference here is that New Orleans isn`t relying on two teams being bad; this is simply uncontrolled access to the worst-case scenarios for the Bucks. If you believe that Giannis Antetokounmpo requesting a trade in the summer of 2026 is the most likely scenario, which I do, this is arguably the year you are most excited to control Milwaukee`s pick. The post-Giannis Bucks could be the worst team in the NBA, and New Orleans stands to gain from that. As long as either Milwaukee or New Orleans is struggling in 2027, the Pelicans should pick reasonably high in that draft. The only reason this falls to No. 6 is that there`s a real scenario where both the Pelicans and Bucks are bad, New Orleans keeps its own pick, and then sends this one to Atlanta. If it were completely unencumbered, this pick could justify a ranking as high as No. 2.

5. 2027 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

4. 2031 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

3. 2029 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets or Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Ranking the Phoenix picks is agonizing. What do you do with a team that`s currently struggling and likely to struggle later? Ultimately, this is the order I settled on for the following reasons:

• The 2027 pick is the least valuable of the three because Phoenix isn`t a true bottom-dweller yet. Devin Booker is still there, still in his prime. There are decent, older role players. There`s a degree of remaining flexibility after the Bradley Beal buyout. I would expect this pick to fall toward the middle of the lottery, perhaps slightly lower if they manage to make the Play-In Tournament.
• The 2031 pick is marginally better due to its long time horizon, making it slightly more tradable. By then, Booker will either be long gone or 35 years old. Jazz GM Justin Zanik called this “the most valuable asset on the market” at the 2025 deadline. Indeed, no pick traded at the 2025 deadline ranks higher.
• The 2029 pick emerges as the “goldilocks” pick. It`s far enough away that Booker will likely have declined or been traded. Yet, it`s close enough that if Booker is eventually traded, most of the picks acquired in that trade won`t have yet materialized. Unlike the 2031 pick, Phoenix will still have dead Bradley Beal money on its books in 2029.

That was my reasoning. You could plausibly argue for any order among these picks. The 2027 pick offers the most certainty, especially given the current strength of the Western Conference. The 2031 pick is tempting because it`s so distant and Phoenix controls none of its own picks until then, making rebuilding a significant challenge. The 2029 pick technically could end up in Houston, but only if it`s worse than both Houston`s own pick and Dallas` pick, meaning if that happens, it`s likely less valuable than initially assumed anyway. So, 2029 wins by a hair, but any of these three Suns picks could conceivably jump into the top four on lottery night.

2. 2029 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers or Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Like the 2027 Bucks pick, this one comes with caveats. Higher up on this list, we noted that the Wizards receive the second-most favorable pick among this one, Boston`s, and Portland`s. Still, the 2029 vintage remains the most valuable Bucks pick on the board for several reasons:

• The 2027 pick must at least acknowledge the possibility that Antetokounmpo is still on the team. However, the 2028-29 season will be his age-34 season, and even if he`s still around, he`s likely to have declined.
• The 2026-27 Bucks technically benefit from the Damian Lillard waiver, as Lillard would have cost them well over $50 million that season before he was waived, but will now only cost them $22 million. In 2029, however, the Bucks will still owe $22 million in dead money for Lillard that otherwise would have been off their books. Sure, Myles Turner will still be under contract, but he will be 33 at that point.
• The Bucks have very little talent and struggle at developing it when they do find it. At least now, Milwaukee is performing well in the minimum free agent market. Who knows what the back end of their roster will look like by then.
• Milwaukee has a unique ownership structure where governorship transfers every five years. Under the original agreement between Wes Edens and Marc Lasry, Lasry would have taken over as governor in 2028. But he sold his stake in the team to Jimmy Haslam, the owner of the Cleveland Browns. Any NFL fan knows that Haslam`s tenure has been anything but stable. If he takes over in 2028, I don`t anticipate positive outcomes for their 2029 draft pick.

1. 2026 New Orleans Pelicans

• Currently belongs to: Atlanta Hawks
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Atlanta will receive the more favorable pick between the Pelicans and Bucks