Unlike their prehistoric namesakes, the Toronto Raptors have spent recent seasons seemingly stuck between eras. Previously, their approach at trade deadlines was ambiguous, oscillating between chasing disgruntled stars and lottery picks. That indecision is now behind them. The 2024-25 Raptors are not rebuilding or in development mode; they are focused on winning.
Toronto bolstered its roster by trading for Brandon Ingram and subsequently signing him to an extension, in addition to extending Jakob Poeltl. The real question isn`t about the team`s playoff aspirations, but whether this particular group of players can truly exceed the sum of its individual talents. General Manager Bobby Webster acknowledged this challenge, stating, “I think the talent level is high, but we still have to see the fit.” With Immanuel Quickley limited to just 33 games last season and Ingram playing only 18 for the Pelicans, the on-court product is expected to be drastically different despite a seemingly familiar roster. Failure to contend for a playoff spot would indicate significant problems.
- The State of Play
- Last Year: A Season of Setbacks and Mixed Signals
- The Offseason: A New Direction
- Las Vegas Over/Under: 39.5 wins (per BetMGM)
- The Conversation: Believer vs. Skeptic
- Raptors Believer: Poised for a Breakthrough
- Raptors Skeptic: Doubts and Unanswered Questions
- Raptors Believer: Improved Spacing and Surprising Depth
- Raptors Skeptic: Questionable Fit and Looming Decisions
- Raptors Believer: Long-Term Strategy and Adaptable Roles
- Raptors Skeptic: The Ginobili Fallacy and Inherent Risks
The State of Play
Last Year: A Season of Setbacks and Mixed Signals
The Raptors` 2023-24 campaign was plagued by injuries from the start. Immanuel Quickley suffered a pelvic injury on opening night and an elbow ligament tear shortly after returning. Scottie Barnes` eye injury further hampered the team, leading to a dismal 2-12 start they never overcame. Despite a 22-21 record from January 13 onwards, often showcasing the league`s third-best defense, many wins came against non-competitive lineups. The trade deadline saw them acquire Ingram for Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, and two second-round picks, while Davion Mitchell went to Miami for another second-rounder. Bright spots included Barnes` defensive growth, Poeltl`s offensive improvement, RJ Barrett`s assist rate, and the emergence of Jamal Shead and Jamison Battle. However, their 30-52 finish neither secured a high lottery pick nor offered clear insights into their core, as Quickley, Barrett, Barnes, and Poeltl played only 165 minutes together.
The Offseason: A New Direction
The most significant offseason change was the departure of team president Masai Ujiri, effectively promoting Bobby Webster to lead executive, though his title remains unchanged. Ujiri still oversaw the draft process, notably FaceTiming No. 9 pick Colin Murray-Boyles despite his impending exit. Roster moves included Jakob Poeltl picking up his option and signing a three-year extension, alongside minimum deals for Sandro Mamukelashvili and Garrett Temple.
Las Vegas Over/Under: 39.5 wins (per BetMGM)
The Conversation: Believer vs. Skeptic
Raptors Believer: Poised for a Breakthrough
This season, the Raptors are set to be the NBA`s surprise team, echoing the 2006-07 and 2013-14 seasons when new basketball operations heads led to significant jumps (47 and 48 wins, respectively). I foresee around 45 wins, driven by Brandon Ingram, a true difference-maker who, before injury, showed a clear commitment to high-volume three-point shooting. With Ingram and Immanuel Quickley healthy, Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett will be far more efficient, and Toronto`s offense will dramatically improve. Defensively, this team will apply relentless pressure, force turnovers, and consistently disrupt opponents. Collin Murray-Boyles, an absolute menace, will seamlessly integrate.
Raptors Skeptic: Doubts and Unanswered Questions
While I acknowledge the potential—a few good pieces, young players who might break out, and a weak Eastern Conference—I struggle to find confidence in their plan. Can Quickley stay healthy? Is he the right point guard to keep Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett content? I question both his durability and his fit, along with the team`s shooting and depth. While they may force turnovers, I`m more concerned about their ability to defend without fouling and protect the ball themselves.
Raptors Believer: Improved Spacing and Surprising Depth
Spacing won`t be perfect, but it will be significantly better. Quickley is a legitimate pull-up threat with off-ball gravity, and Ingram is a more capable shooter and passer than he`s often given credit for. With more dangerous offensive players on the court, everyone`s spot-up opportunities will be cleaner. Far from worrying about depth, I believe they might have too many rotation-worthy players. I`m bullish on Sandro Mamukelashvili, especially after EuroBasket, and hope he doesn`t hinder Colin Murray-Boyles` playing time. Ja`Kobe Walter could boost the second unit`s defense, but where does he fit if Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji are already coming off the bench? Jamal Shead has limited competition at backup point guard, yet Darko Rajaković might experiment with non-traditional PG lineups to maximize switchability, particularly if Shead struggles offensively. These are, in fact, good problems to have.
Raptors Skeptic: Questionable Fit and Looming Decisions
I doubt any of the mentioned bench players are rotation-caliber on a genuinely good team, and I`m unconvinced the projected starters—Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes, and Poeltl—will truly click. Rajaković mentioned they shared the floor in the summer, but I wouldn`t be surprised if he`s persuading Barrett to come off the bench early in the season, perhaps with the “Canadian Manu Ginobili” pitch he`s used before. Barrett`s reaction is unknown, and it`s telling that neither he nor Agbaji have signed extensions. Regardless of our differing win projections, the roster will surely change post-trade deadline; the Raptors are currently in the luxury tax, and finishing the season there would be ill-advised.
Raptors Believer: Long-Term Strategy and Adaptable Roles
The lack of extensions for Barrett and Agbaji isn`t a major concern. The Raptors already have significant long-term salary commitments and an abundance of young wings. Keeping options open with team-friendly deals makes sense. There are ways to avoid the luxury tax without moving either player. Regarding the starting lineup, Rajaković should initially play his five best players together and stagger perimeter minutes. If the starting unit underperforms after a decent sample, moving Barrett to the bench wouldn`t be a catastrophe or necessarily signal a trade. The sixth-man role worked out quite well for Ginobili, didn`t it?
Raptors Skeptic: The Ginobili Fallacy and Inherent Risks
Manu Ginobili was a first-ballot Hall of Famer—a star playmaker willing to sacrifice minutes and stats, making him an absolute outlier. Equating Barrett to Ginobili is wishful thinking, and a bench move would undeniably be a negative sign. Moreover, the reasons for playoff skepticism are clear: their best players are injury-prone, young talent is unproven, and the coaching staff faces a complex chemistry experiment. While Barnes and Ingram, both former All-Stars, *could* lead Toronto to 40-plus wins, one cannot dismiss the very real possibility of this entire endeavor unraveling.
